Will the final game of Week 5 serve as another sign of the changing of the guard in the AFC, or will the dynasty continue to reassert its power among the NFL’s elite?
The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) play host to the Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) on Monday night in a game that could prove very important down the road in the AFC playoff picture.
The Jaguars are coming off a big win at San Francisco, while the Chiefs have rebounded from an 0-2 start with a pair of victories. However, both came against one-win teams (Giants, Ravens), so the jury is still out about whether they’ve truly turned the corner.
ODDS AND TRENDS
The Chiefs remain the alpha in the AFC until knocked off their perch, which is reflected in Kansas City being a consensus 3.5-point favorite on the road against a team with a superior record.
Kansas City has dominated the series, winning the past eight meetings. The Chiefs have also been backed by 78 percent of the spread-line money at BetRivers, where their -205 moneyline to win the game outright has also drawn 94 percent of the money. That includes one ML wager of $14,200 and another at $11,000 when the line was at -185.
PROP PICKS
–Under 45.5 Total Points (-159 at BetRivers): While the Chiefs’ offense remains an unpredictable unit, the defense is still elite. And five of the Jaguars’ last six home games have gone Under the total points line.
–Chiefs TE Travis Kelce 25+ Receiving Yards (-351 at DraftKings): This has been the second most popular player prop at the book despite Kelce clearly having lost a step — or two. Kelce has a modest 15 receptions for 182 yards and one touchdown on the season, but has topped 25 yards in each of the first four games.
THE NEWS
The Chiefs appear to be getting back on track following their first 0-2 start since 2014. After securing a win over the Giants, Kansas City’s offense was in full gear during a dominating 37-20 victory against Baltimore in Week 4.
In his first game back after dislocating his right shoulder on the third offensive play of the season opener, receiver Xavier Worthy led the Chiefs in both receiving yards (83 on five catches) and rushing yards (38 on two carries).
Kansas City downgraded Worthy to questionable on Sunday, but although he is now dealing with an ankle injury in addition to the shoulder issue, he is reportedly expected to play Monday night.
While Worthy didn’t reach the end zone against Baltimore, four other players caught touchdown passes from Mahomes, who threw more TDs against Baltimore than in the first three games combined (three).
“The execution, I think, was the biggest thing,” Mahomes said. “Obviously, guys made plays and we were able to score a lot of points, but I’m always big on the execution. … I think that was something that we did at a very high level this last game.”
In coach Liam Coen’s first season, Jacksonville is off to a 3-1 start for just the second time in the past 15 seasons after going on the road to hand San Francisco its first loss of the campaign last week.
After Tampa Bay ranked fourth in rushing yards last year during Coen’s only season as offensive coordinator, that ground success has carried over to the Jaguars.
Jacksonville ranks fourth in rushing offense (144.0 yards per game). Travis Etienne Jr., who ran for 124 yards against the 49ers, is fifth in the league in rushing yards (394) and is averaging a league-best 6.1 yards per carry among players with 25 or more rushes.
“Coen has a great knack for how the game is going, getting playmakers the ball,” Etienne said. “I feel like that’s why we do so good (on the ground).”
Perhaps the Jaguars’ even greater transformation, though, comes on the other side of the ball. A year after finishing last with just nine takeaways, Jacksonville’s defense now leads the league with 13 (nine interceptions, four fumble recoveries) and a plus-nine differential.
Something will have to give when a Jacksonville defense that has forced three-plus turnovers in each game goes up against a Chiefs offense that has turned the ball over just once so far this season.
“They go after it,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said. “You’ve got to make sure that you’re aware of that as you play them.”
INJURY REPORT
Jaguars defensive end Travon Walker underwent wrist surgery Monday and returned to practice Saturday on a limited basis. Walker was listed as questionable on Saturday’s injury report.
Coen is hopeful that the No. 1 overall pick in 2022 will play this week.
“We’re going to go right down to the wire with it; we will,” Coen said Saturday. “As much as he can keep getting the swelling and stuff. … it’s just a matter of that. I trust that if he says he can go, then we’ll go.”
Linebacker Yasir Abdullah (hamstring) missed practice all week and will sit out Monday. Guard Wyatt Milum (knee) is questionable.
Cornerback Kristian Fulton (ankle) and defensive tackle Omarr Norman-Lott (shoulder) are also listed as questionable for the Chiefs.
THEY SAID IT
“Huge. Just a great opportunity. This is going to be a blast.” –Coehn, on playing host to the reigning AFC champions on Monday night.
PREDICTION
The Jaguars enter Monday night with the better record and as the host team. But there is a lot of scar tissue built up against an opponent that has won each of the past eight meetings. Jaguars’ Trevor Lawrence also needs to prove he can go toe-to-toe with the elite quarterbacks in the league without making a few critical poor decisions. This is the type of game in which we’ve seen Mahomes wipe away late deficits time and again. –Chiefs 23, Jaguars 20
