The Pittsburgh Steelers and visiting Miami Dolphins each are working to improve their chances of making the playoffs as they prepare to clash on Monday night.
The Dolphins (6-7) are riding a four-game winning streak and need to extend that run to keep their slim playoff hopes intact.
The Steelers (7-6) hold first place in the AFC North and are ahead of the Ravens by a half-game after ending a two-game losing skid with a 27-22 win at Baltimore last week. Pittsburgh also faces pressure to keep winning since its best route to the postseason is to win the division.
ODDS AND TRENDS
Pittsburgh is a consensus 3.0-point favorite, essentially due to being at home where the game-time temperature is expected to be in the teens.
The Steelers have been backed by 62% of the spread-line money at BetRivers, where Pittsburgh’s -180 moneyline to win the game outright has drawn 83% of the money.
The 42.0 total points line has seen the Over backed by 67% of the total bets while the Under has drawn 76% of the money. Each of the Steelers’ past eight home games against AFC teams have gone Under the total points line, according to the book.
KEY STAT
Pittsburgh has won 22 of its past 23 Monday night home games.
PLAYER PROPS
–Dolphins RB De’Von Achane 80+ Rushing Yards (-128 at DraftKings): Achane will play after leaving last week’s win over the Jets with a rib injury. He had already rushed for 92 yards in a game Miami controlled easily, and Achane enters with 1,126 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on the ground this season. This has been the most popular player prop at the book, perhaps in part due to the Steelers’ defense being charged with an NFL-high 65 broken tackles this season. A higher potential payout is available with Achane at +124 to rush for at least 90 yards, which he has done in four consecutive games.
–Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers Under 0.5 INTs (-129 at BetRivers): Rodgers has not thrown an interception in his past six home games and was not picked off in his past three games overall. Pittsburgh figures to have a run-heavy approach in frigid conditions and when Rodgers does go to the air, he will be attacking a Miami defense that has produced just seven interceptions this season.
INSIDE EDGE
Rodgers has completed just 57.4% of his passes thrown over the middle of the field this season, the fifth-worst mark among qualified quarterbacks, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable engine. By comparison, he completed 70.7% of such passes last season.
INJURY REPORT
Steelers star linebacker T.J. Watt is out after undergoing surgery for a collapsed lung sustained at the team practice facility last Wednesday.
Pittsburgh has multiple players either dealing with injuries or in concussion protocol. Offensive lineman Andrus Peat (concussion) and cornerback James Pierre (calf) will not play Monday. Running back Jaylen Warren was a late addition to the injury report on Monday morning and, like defensive lineman Derrick Harmon (knee), is considered questionable. Wide receivers DK Metcalf (rest) and Ben Skowronek (hand), as well as tight end Darnell Washington (concussion), were limited in practice Saturday.
Dolphins cornerback Elijah Campbell (ankle/knee) was listed as doubtful to face Pittsburgh. Offensive lineman Andrew Meyer (tricep), the only other limited participant in Saturday’s practice, was questionable.
THEY SAID IT
–“The good news is that how he makes a living is avoiding tacklers. And that’s what he’ll have to do. The bumps and bruises in the National Football League — if you don’t have something in December, you’re probably playing football wrong.” –Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel on Achane’s rib injury.
PREDICTION
The Dolphins have picked themselves up off the mat this season, but quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is 0-5 all-time in games where the temperature is below 40 degrees at kickoff. Miami’s 27th-ranked run defense, which allows an average of 131.9 yards per game on the ground, will see a heavy dose of Warren and Kenneth Gainwell as Pittsburgh plays the field position game while capitalizing on a few Tagovailoa mistakes. –Steelers 23, Dolphins 20
