Week 12 of the regular season closes with an intriguing matchup between a surprising team seeking a statement road win against a franchise trying to prove it still belongs among the NFL’s top tier of contenders.
Carolina (6-5) has won five of its past seven games, and a win on Monday night would vault the Panthers into sole possession of first place in the NFC South. The rare primetime game for Carolina comes at San Francisco, with the 49ers (7-4) looking to keep the 9-2 Rams and 8-3 Seahawks within sight in the NFC West.
ODDS & TRENDS
The 49ers are consensus 7.5-point favorites. The line has shifted to 7.0 at BetRivers, where San Francisco has been backed by 74% of the total spread-line bets and 65% of the money. According to the book, the Panthers have covered the spread in 11 of their past 12 games as underdogs against NFC opponents.
The public is expecting a win from San Francisco, whose -420 moneyline has drawn 88% and 92% of the action, respectively.
The total points line is 49.0, with the Over backed by 66% of the money. Of note, five of the 49ers’ past six games against NFC teams have gone Over the total points line.
PROP BETS
–49ers QB Brock Purdy 2+ TD Passes (-200 at DraftKings): Purdy threw three TDs passes in his return last week and has multiple TD passes in each of his three games this season. That has led to this being the most popular player prop at the book. Carolina arrives in San Francisco with a mid-tier defense that is allowing 212.8 passing yards and 22.6 points per game.
–49ers TE George Kittle Anytime TD (+102 at BetRivers): Kittle has reached the end zone in three of his past four games and serves as Purdy’s security blanked in the red zone.
INSIDE EDGE
San Francisco led the NFL with a 55.1% success rate on offensive plays last week, according to Inside Edge’s Remarkable Engine. Meanwhile, Carolina’s defense ranked fifth-worst in allowing a 51.7% success rate in Week 11.
KEY STAT
The 49ers’ defense has allowed a completion rate of 84% in the red zone and San Francisco is last in the NFL with only 12 sacks on the season — three fewer than any other team.
THE NEWS
Among the subplots is former Carolina running back Christian McCaffrey, who was traded to San Francisco in 2022.
McCaffrey has rushed for a team-high 707 yards with six touchdowns, while he also leads the 49ers with 74 catches and 732 receiving yards.
“He’s even better than you thought,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said, recalling the trade from the Panthers.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young set a franchise record with 448 passing yards last week at Atlanta. He was rewarded by being named the NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Because of that, Carolina became the first team this season to have five players receive a weekly league honor.
“All you have to do is watch last week to see what he’s capable of,” Shanahan said of Young.
INJURY REPORT
Young, who was a full participant all week in practice, dismissed any notable lingering impact from his limping because of an ailing ankle after last Sunday’s game.
“Everyone is fighting through something at this point of the year,” Young said.
Meanwhile, Purdy was back in action last week after a six-week layoff with a toe injury. So the extra day to recover might be beneficial before the visit from Carolina.
With 49ers linebacker Tatum Bethune out with an injury, Curtis Robinson will move into a starting role.
The 49ers also will have a new kicker because ex-Panther Eddie Pineiro, who was 22-for-22 this year on field goals, is out with an injured right hamstring. Kicker Matt Gay, most recently with the Washington Commanders, was signed.
THEY SAID IT
–“So easy to sell to the team. You don’t have to get guys fired up for these types of games. … You try to preach every game is a championship opportunity so you don’t all of a sudden have to get up for Monday Night Football.” –Panthers coach Dave Canales
–“You address how important this game is. Especially playing against a team that’s in the playoff hunt. I think we understand how important it is to get a back-to-back win.” –49ers coach Kyle Shanahan, whose team hasn’t won consecutive games since beginning the season 3-0
PREDICTION
The 49ers had a season-high point total in last week’s 41-22 victory at Arizona as the offense is as healthy as it has been all season. The Panthers’ resurgence is legitimate and they can keep it interesting with San Francisco’s defense struggling to apply pressure all season, but a home primetime game against an opponent who could factor into the wild-card picture when all is said and done will get San Francisco’s full focus. –49ers 27, Panthers 23
